Ethanol: Told you so
So the Wall Street Journal has a story today, “Ethanol Craze Cools As Doubts Multiply.”
In the span of one growing season, ethanol has gone from panacea to pariah in the eyes of some. The critics, which include industries hurt when the price of corn rises, blame ethanol for pushing up food prices, question its environmental bona fides and dispute how much it really helps reduce the need for oil.
Interesting. Even more so because I said many of these things in USA Today back in 2004. Did anyone listen?
Ethanol is a Bad Thing. It costs too much, environmentally, to produce (in terms of fertilizer and water, for starters). There’s not nearly enough arable land to grow the corn or sugar beets or whatever else would need to replace fossil fuels. And trying to grow a lot has jacked up the price of everything from tacos (hurting the Mexican economy and driving more people here) to beer, as the price of corn rises and pushes up the price of other crops. After all, why plant wheat if corn gets you more money?
I said once that electric cars weren’t a solution to our oil woes because of the dirty means of producing that electricity (coal, for the most part). I was wrong, at least partially.
If we’re going to get ourselves off oil, the way to do it is to move toward electric cars, but to produce that electricity using solar, wind, hydro, geothermal (perhaps my favorite), or some other clean way.
Gasoline was — is — great because it’s so portable; you can get energy into a moving vehicle simply. But we need to get our thinking out of the 19th century, where the only way to power a vehicle is via a liquid fuel in a tank. Those liquid fuels are becoming too costly in terms of cash and the environment.
Electricity is great because there are so many ways to produce it. If we can get ourselves away from burning coal to produce it, we can power our cars cleanly, end to end.
Gnomic says:
One of my favorite topics! Thanks Andrew! (And I didn’t get you anything).
You are exactly right about ethanol; its energy density and costs make it one of the least best options. If you want an agrafuel, biodesiel or vegtable oil is the way to go, at least until we bioengineer a better fuel.
In the short term, there is NO solution that meets the energy growth needs of the world. Throw global warming and various heat trapping gases into the equation (CO2 is just one of many hydrocarbons) and the problem is much more constrained. Solar, Wind & waves (secondary solar), and nuclear are the best options. And if you ignore the nuclear waste (and the lack of safe storage)issue, here is a sobering fact from MIT (from http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/414/):
Right now humans globally require 13 trillion watts (or terawatts) of power. By 2050, we’ll need 28 terawatts. Nocera pokes holes in some hypothetical scenarios offered to achieve this objective. If you gave over every square inch of cropland on the face of the earth to biomass production, you’d only get 7 additional terawatts. Plus, “you couldn’t eat anymore.” You’d still need to add 8,000 nuclear power plants, by building a new plant every 1.6 days for the next 45 years; put wind turbines everywhere; and dam every available river, to approach the 28 terawatt goal.
Uh-Oh.
Solar is the only real option - its the only energy sourse the puts out “free” polution free energy. All we need to do is capture it. Unfortunately that technology isn’t efficient enough (the average solar cell is only 21% effecient, although newer technologies may double that) to keep up with demand.
Which brings us back to a multifuel approach to meet demand. The fastest way to a solution is to convert the shipping fleet to biodesiel as fast possible. This would result in a 20% drop in imported oil in 2-3 years. The next step is to invest in as much geothermal, wind, and solar as possible. Home furnaces and water heaters should go away as cogeneration becomes the norm.
Finally, we need a national man-on-the-moon scale program to address energy demand and use. America needs to regain its technological leadership and this is a cause with which we can rally Americans to a common cause.
For more good info, check out MIT. They are taking a real leadership position in this area.
http://web.mit.edu/mit_energy/programs/lectures/index.html
http://mitworld.mit.edu/act_vfinder.php?mode=bykey&VCat=8&VHost=&x=21&y=7
(No, I’m not a alumnus)