I was gonna make this a flowchart, but it’s too simple.

If you watch the election returns on November 4, here’s all you have to keep in mind:

Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida

If Obama wins any two of those states, it’s pretty much game over for McCain. They’re all in the eastern time zone, too, with polls closing between 7:00 and 8:00 that evening (EST), so it could be an early night. If Obama wins three or more of them, it’s definitely game over.

This is based on which states Obama has solidly (by more than 10 points and no flip-flopping). States with a smaller Obama lead I assume go to McCain, which I think is pretty generous.

Build your own scenarios over at CQ.

So the McCain campaign has a Web form where you can send your message… to Barack Obama. “Tell Barack Obama it’s not 2004,” it says.

So I took advantage of the form to tell Obama “Keep it up – you’ve got my vote!” You can do the same….

Barack Obama’s site has a section to help people organize rallies and such. But they chose an awful name. How could someone not stand up and say, “Um, wait a sec….”?

I think last night’s presidential debate was going in John McCain’s favor, but clearly – based on all the polls –  didn’t end up that way. And I believe there was a three-word turning point in that debate: “eight years old.”

In fact, Mr. Ayers has become the centerpiece of Sen. McCain’s campaign over the last two or three weeks. This has been their primary focus. So let’s get the record straight. Bill Ayers is a professor of education in Chicago.

Forty years ago, when I was eight years old, he engaged in despicable acts with a radical domestic group.

Obama made the perfect point that the whole line of discussion was moot. But McCain still wouldn’t drop it. At from that point on, slowly but surely, the debate swung back to Obama.

There are a lot of reasons McCain lost the debate – he was angry, bitter, condescending, and evasive. But there’s your turning point.